The exploration sector within oil and gas is at an inflection point.
Proven reserves have declined by 35% over the past 15 years, while exploration capital remains at just 50% of pre-2015 levels. At the same time, commercial success rates are deteriorating while discovery cost increases continue to outpace inflation.
To reverse these trends, the industry must take bold, structural steps to reframe how exploration is conceived, structured and executed. A new playbook must:
- Reevaluate strategy: Update “where to play” and “how to win” choices, grounded in realistic capital allocation and strategic positioning.
- Redesign the exploration stage-gate: Adopt lessons learned from other industries (e.g., Pharma’s R&D model) to streamline decisions, incorporate AI, and minimize waste.
- Leverage AI to widen the opportunity funnel: Aggregate and structure vast datasets to enable high-throughput screening and smarter prioritization.
- Accelerate decisions and improve agility: Shift to sprint-based screening and play evaluation processes to drive faster, better-informed choices.
- Be decisive earlier: Enforce clear gate criteria and delegate authority to empowered teams to drive sharp, early decisions with minimal drag.
By embracing digital tools, decision science and organizational alignment, industry leaders can reverse declining performance and position themselves for long-term growth.
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