Alvarez & Marsal (A&M) is delighted to publish the second edition of the Portuguese Banking Pulse (“The Pulse”) Q2 ’22. In this edition, we share results from our research examining the 7 biggest Portuguese banks (“top 7”) with regard to their activities within Portugal and highlight key performance indicators of the Portuguese banking industry. 

The Pulse aims to help banking executives and board members stay current on industry trends. As trending topics, we include:

1. Status of moratoria and PGS
2. Comparison Portuguese vs Spanish Banks 
3. ESG as a business opportunity for Global Banks

All the data used in this report has been obtained from publicly available sources. The methodology for all the calculations is homogeneous and discussed in
the glossary.

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Portuguese Macroeconomic Overview 

Inflation – Interannual Growth 

• In Portugal, inflation has been rising since 2020 and has broken the 9% levels since July 2022.
• The last period of high inflation began 50 years ago during the decades of 1971-1992.
• According to the Bank of Portugal, the Portuguese economy is suffering direct and indirect impacts from the invasion of Ukraine, resulting in increased uncertainty, higher inflation rates and sharper disruptions in global production chains.

GDP (€ billions)

• Portuguese GDP had been growing steadily since the Covid19 pandemic.
• Bank of Portugal expects GDP to increase 6.3% in 2022, 2.6% in 2023 and 2.0% in 2024, this would lead to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year 2022.
• GDP expectations are being reviewed downward during the last semester.

EURIBOR 12m (%)

• Inflation is prompting the ECB’s to increase interest t rates with official rates of the deposit facility standing at 0.75% after the September review.
• Euribor 12 months is already trading at 2.3% signal of future rate increases ahead.

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